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June 25, 2017

Economic Update – June 25, 2017

GDP Growth in Q1 Was a Disappoint but Q2 Appears Better… The last time we provided an economic update, in April, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 appeared to have slowed compared to second half of 2016. The numbers are now out and GDP did slow in Q1 to 1.2% compared to 2.1% in Q4 of 2016. Slower growth in the first quarter was attributed to slower consumer spending and a decline in inventory accumulation by businesses. Consumer spending in Q1 was estimated to have grown only 0.6% compared to Q1 of 2016 which is indeed a negative […]

September 18, 2017

Economic Update – September 18, 2017

As we have written previously GDP growth in Q1 was disappointing at 1.2%, but Q2 did rebound to 3.0% based on the “second” estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as of the end of August. The better growth figures in Q2 were partly driven by increases in personal consumption. The consensus estimate for Q3 GDP growth is 2.7% with the GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed at 3.0%. However, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma may very well have a near term impact on growth in Q3 and don’t appear to be factored into those estimates. One of the major brokerage […]

December 11, 2017

Economic Update – Labor Market is Bouncing Back from Hurricanes

Currently there are many positive indicators regarding economic activity that should bode well for the home improvement industry heading into 2018. Let’s take a look… Consumer Confidence Survey at 17-year High The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for November was at 129.5 which is the fifth consecutive monthly increase and is at a 17-year high. A part of that data indicated that consumer’s optimism about the short term outlook and the job market both improved in November compared to October. The University of Michigan also releases a Consumer Sentiment Survey which showed a decline in November to 98.5 from October’s reading […]

October 17, 2018

Economic Update – September/October 2018

GDP Growth Shows Strong Upturn… Since our last update in the spring the US economy has shown strong growth over the past several months. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter indicate the economy grew 4.2%, an increase from 2.2% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2017.Growth in the second quarter was driven in part by strong consumer spending. On Friday the first estimate for the third quarter GDP was reported at 3.5%. …While Jobs Remain Plentiful… With strong GDP growth job creation has remained solid with an average of 189,000 jobs added […]