economic update Archives - Pinnacle Finance

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June 25, 2017

Economic Update – June 25, 2017

GDP Growth in Q1 Was a Disappoint but Q2 Appears Better… The last time we provided an economic update, in April, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 appeared to have slowed compared to second half of 2016. The numbers are now out and GDP did slow in Q1 to 1.2% compared to 2.1% in Q4 of 2016. Slower growth in the first quarter was attributed to slower consumer spending and a decline in inventory accumulation by businesses. Consumer spending in Q1 was estimated to have grown only 0.6% compared to Q1 of 2016 which is indeed a negative […]

September 18, 2017

Economic Update – September 18, 2017

As we have written previously GDP growth in Q1 was disappointing at 1.2%, but Q2 did rebound to 3.0% based on the “second” estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as of the end of August. The better growth figures in Q2 were partly driven by increases in personal consumption. The consensus estimate for Q3 GDP growth is 2.7% with the GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed at 3.0%. However, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma may very well have a near term impact on growth in Q3 and don’t appear to be factored into those estimates. One of the major brokerage […]

March 5, 2019

Economic Update February/March 2019

Continued Strong Job Growth Should Help Drive Home Improvement Industry… In what should be quite beneficial for the home improvement industry job growth in the United States has remained strong. January nonfarm payrolls grew 304,000, higher than the consensus expectation of 165,000, with December adding 222,000. The average monthly gain in 2018 was 223,000. An additional positive is that average hourly earnings for employees increased to 3.2% in January compared to January 2018 reflecting rising pay for employees after many years of stagnant earnings growth. …With Consumer Confidence Bouncing Back… The Conference Board reported that its’ consumer confidence index rose […]

June 4, 2019

Economic Update – May/June 2019

Strong Economic Growth In Q1 But Slowing In Q2…. The most recent estimate for GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019 was quite strong at 3.1%, up from 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Much of the GDP growth in Q1 was from a buildup of inventories and net export of goods. Many have speculated that the buildup of inventories was related to the prospect of the tariff increases that have made headlines in the past several months. If that was the case then a reduction of inventory should have a negative impact on growth in future quarters. […]